In 2020, the new crown epidemic continues to spread all over the world, which will undoubtedly have an impact on China's steel export and further affect the steel demand. 

以粗钢口径计算，2019年，我国净出口粗钢5229万吨，占全年产量的5.2%。从大的出口类别看，我国钢材出口以板材为主。根据海关总署的数据，2019年，国内共出口板材3848万吨，在钢材出口中占比高达60%。此外，棒材占15%，管材占14%，角型材占5%。将板材出口细分，出口量较大的板材主要有镀层板(32%)、中厚宽钢带(23%)、涂层板(17%)及中板(14%)等。从地区分布看，我国出口的钢材主要流向东南亚和非洲，很大比例流向韩国，而欧美和大洋洲占比仅10%。

Based on the diameter of crude steel, in 2019, China's net export of crude steel is 52.29 million tons, accounting for 5.2% of the annual output. From the perspective of large export categories, China's steel exports are mainly plates. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2019, 38.48 million tons of plates were exported in China, accounting for 60% of steel exports. In addition, bar accounts for 15%, pipe 14% and angle profile 5%. The export of plate is divided into three parts: coated plate (32%), medium thick and wide steel strip (23%), coated plate (17%) and medium plate (14%). In terms of regional distribution, China's steel exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia and Africa, a large proportion to South Korea, while Europe, America and Oceania account for only 10%.

对比2019年的产量及出口数据，粗钢口径的钢材出口量占总产量的比重约为7%。出口量最大的板材，其出口占比达到10.9%。其中，热轧卷板作为板材的一种，出口占比约为3.8%;螺纹钢出口占比较低，仅为2.1%。很显然，海外疫情发酵对于热卷、冷卷等板材的需求冲击显著大于螺纹钢等建筑钢材。

Compared with the output and export data in 2019, the export volume of coarse steel accounts for about 7% of the total output. The export volume of the largest plate, its export accounted for 10.9%. Among them, as a kind of plate, hot rolled coil accounts for about 3.8% of the total exports, while screw steel accounts for only 2.1% of the total exports. Obviously, the impact of overseas epidemic fermentation on the demand of hot coil, cold coil and other plates is significantly greater than that of rebar and other construction steels.

虽然钢材直接出口的比重并不大，且出口流向欧美等疫情发展迅速地区的占比较小，但我们需要考虑钢材制品出口量所对应的钢材间接出口量。

Although the proportion of direct steel export is not large, and the proportion of export flow to Europe and the United States and other regions with rapid epidemic development is relatively small, we need to consider the indirect steel export volume corresponding to the export volume of steel products.

对海关总署的数据进行梳理，可以将钢材制品归为机械设备、家电、汽车、船舶与集装箱四大类，并归纳出2019年各自的出口量。之后，结合四类商品2019年的国内产量及市场规模综合考量，可以分别计算出这四类钢材制品的出口占比。其中，船舶及集装箱行业出口比重非常大，占94.5%，随后的新订单情况势必受到海外疫情的冲击，但反应可能滞后。另外，家电出口比重也不小，近四成的出口需求或受到冲击。相对而言，汽车行业出口比重较小，仅5%左右;机械设备出口占比约为13%，比例并不算高，如果细分到工程机械上，那么出口占比稍有提升，至16%。

By combing the data of the General Administration of customs, steel products can be classified into four categories: mechanical equipment, home appliances, automobiles, ships and containers, and their respective exports in 2019 can be concluded. After that, combined with the comprehensive consideration of domestic production and market scale of four types of commodities in 2019, the export proportion of these four types of steel products can be calculated respectively. Among them, the export proportion of ship and container industry is very large, accounting for 94.5%. The subsequent new orders are bound to be impacted by the overseas epidemic, but the response may lag behind. In addition, the proportion of home appliances exports is not small, and nearly 40% of the export demand may be impacted. Relatively speaking, the export proportion of automobile industry is relatively small, only about 5%; the export proportion of mechanical equipment is about 13%, which is not high. If it is subdivided into construction machinery, the export proportion will slightly increase to 16%.

得出四大类钢材制品的出口占比后，再按照这四类钢材制品在钢材总消费量中的权重进行加权平均，可以估算出其形成的钢材间接出口占比约为19.3%。这一比例很显然比钢材直接出口占比高不少。此外，我国钢材制品的出口对象相对钢材出口而言，更为分散，流向欧美等地的占比也有所提高。如机械设备中的滚动轴承，2019年出口至欧美的比例接近30%。由此可见，欧美海外疫情加剧，对钢材间接出口的冲击更值得警惕。

After obtaining the export proportion of four categories of steel products, and then according to the weighted average of the weight of these four categories of steel products in the total steel consumption, it can be estimated that the indirect export proportion of steel products is about 19.3%. This proportion is obviously higher than that of direct steel export. In addition, compared with steel exports, the export objects of steel products in China are more scattered, and the proportion of steel products flowing to Europe, America and other places has also increased. For example, the proportion of rolling bearing exported to Europe and America in 2019 is close to 30%. It can be seen that the overseas epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has intensified, and the impact on the indirect export of steel products deserves more vigilance.

在估算出钢材间接出口比例后，再结合直接出口比例进一步评估我国钢材出口/产量的综合比重。钢材制品占整个钢材下游消费的比重约为36.5%，大部分仍流向国内建筑行业，再考虑到6.9%的钢材直接出口比例，可以加权估算出整个钢材行业的综合出口比重约为13.9%。

After estimating the indirect export proportion of steel products, combined with the direct export proportion, the comprehensive proportion of China's steel export / output is further evaluated. Steel products account for 36.5% of the downstream consumption of the whole steel industry, most of which still flow to the domestic construction industry. Considering 6.9% of the direct export proportion of steel, it can be estimated that the comprehensive export proportion of the whole steel industry is about 13.9% by weight.

按照两三个季度的影响时间、20%的生产下滑幅度估算，海外疫情持续发酵对我国钢材行业出口(含直接出口和间接出口)的影响程度为10%—15%。再结合此前得出的钢材综合出口量占总产量13.9%左右的数据，我国钢材总需求受到的冲击预计在1.3%—2.1%，这意味着建筑行业需要实现3.6%的额外增长才能完全对冲出口的负面影响。所以，虽然热轧卷板等板材已经跌至成本线，但中长期来看，板材价格走势依然不乐观

According to the impact time of two or three quarters and the 20% decline of production, the impact of continuous fermentation of overseas epidemic on the export of China's steel industry (including direct export and indirect export) is estimated to be 10% - 15%. Combined with the data that the comprehensive export volume of steel accounts for about 13.9% of the total output, the impact on China's total steel demand is expected to be 1.3% - 2.1%, which means that the construction industry needs to achieve an additional 3.6% growth to fully hedge the negative impact of exports. Therefore, although hot rolled coil and other plates have fallen to the cost line, the price trend of plates is still not optimistic in the medium and long term。