专家表示，目前制造业PMI的回落主要受短期季节性因素影响，制造业后期走势仍具有平稳基础。非制造业则要注重强化非制造业快速发展的动力基础和需求基础，以更好发挥其对稳增长的基础性作用。

Experts say that the current decline of PMI in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by short-term seasonal factors, and the trend in the later stage of manufacturing industry is still on a stable basis. Non-manufacturing industry should pay attention to strengthening the dynamic and demand basis for the rapid development of non-manufacturing industry in order to better play its basic role in stable growth.

制造业景气度回落，但结构持续改善

Manufacturing boom declined, but the structure continued to improve

11月份，制造业PMI为50.0%，环比小幅回落0.2个百分点，处于临界点，创下了2016年7月份以来的新低。

In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a slight drop of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, at a critical point, hitting a new low since July 2016.

今年以来，制造业PMI从2月份50.3%的低位开始回升，5月份升至51.9%。此后，制造业PMI震荡下行，11月份创下了今年以来的新低。

Since this year, manufacturing PMI has recovered from a low of 50.3% in February and rose to 51.9% in May. Since then, the manufacturing PMI shock has fallen, hitting a new low this year in November.

从13个分项指数看，同上月相比，新出口订单指数、产成品库存指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和供应商指数有所上升，积压订单指数同上月持平，其余7个指数均有所下降。

From 13 sub-indexes, compared with last month, the new export order index, finished product inventory index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier index increased, the backlog order index remained the same as last month, while the remaining seven indexes declined.

国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，11月份，制造业生产指数为51.9%，比上月微落0.1个百分点，持续位于景气区间。不过，需求扩张有所减缓，新订单指数为50.4%，低于上月0.4个百分点，高于临界点，表明企业产品订货量增速有所放缓。

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in November, the manufacturing production index was 51.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and remained in the boom zone. However, demand expansion slowed down, with the new order index of 50.4%, lower than 0.4 percentage points last month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the growth rate of enterprise product orders has slowed down.

受近期部分大宗商品价格下行等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均降至年内低点，分别为50.3%和46.4%，比上月回落7.7和5.6个百分点。特别是出厂价格指数回落至临界点以下，其中石油加工、化学原料和化学制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业出厂价格指数回落幅度较大。

Influenced by the recent downturn of some commodity prices and other factors, the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index both fell to the lowest point in the year, 50.3% and 46.4% respectively, down 7.7 percentage points and 5.6 percentage points from last month. Especially, the ex-factory price index has fallen below the critical point, among which the ex-factory price index of petroleum processing, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries has fallen considerably.

“尽管制造业PMI处于临界点，但多数行业处于扩张区间。”赵庆河分析说，11月份，食品及酒饮料精制茶、纺织服装服饰、医药、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等制造业PMI位于52.0%及以上相对较高运行水平。受部分地区采暖季加大环境治理力度等因素影响，高耗能行业PMI降至48.4%，其中石油加工、化学原料和化学制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工、有色金属冶炼及压延加工等制造业PMI均位于收缩区间，且低于制造业总体水平。

"Although manufacturing PMI is at a critical point, most industries are in the expansion zone." According to Zhao Qinghe's analysis, in November, the PMI of food and beverage refined tea, textile clothing and apparel, medicine, railway ship aerospace equipment, electrical machinery equipment and other manufacturing industries was located at 52.0% or above, which was relatively high level of operation. Affected by increasing environmental management in heating season in some areas, PMI of high energy-consuming industries dropped to 48.4%. PMI of petroleum processing, chemical raw materials and chemicals, ferrous metals smelting and calendering, non-ferrous metals smelting and calendering are all located in the contraction zone, and lower than the overall level of manufacturing industry.

值得注意的是，制造业产业转型升级继续推进，消费推动经济发展的基础性作用持续发挥。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品制造业PMI为50.5%、51.7%和51.6%，分别比上月上升0.6、0.1和0.8个百分点，且均高于制造业总体水平。

It is worth noting that the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry continue to advance, and the basic role of consumption in promoting economic development continues to play. PMI of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing is 50.5%, 51.7% and 51.6%, respectively, up 0.6%, 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points from last month, and higher than the overall level of manufacturing.

非制造业运行总体稳定，服务业扩张加快

The operation of non-manufacturing industry is generally stable, and the expansion of service industry is accelerating.

11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为53.4%，比上月回落0.5个百分点。这也是非制造业PMI连续两个月增长放缓。不过，今年以来，非制造业PMI始终处于扩张区间，且明显高于临界点。

In November, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. This is also the second consecutive month of slowdown in non-manufacturing PMI growth. However, since this year, non-manufacturing PMI has been in the expansion range, and significantly higher than the critical point.

在各单项指数中，新出口订单和业务活动预期指数环比有所上升，新订单指数环比持平，其余指标环比有所下降。

Among the individual indices, the new export orders and business activities expectation index increased, the new orders index was flat, and the other indicators decreased.

赵庆河说，受天气逐渐转冷等因素影响，建筑业生产增速有所放缓，11月份商务活动指数为59.3%，比上月回落4.6个百分点，但位于较高景气区间。从市场需求和预期看，建筑业新订单指数和业务活动预期指数为56.5%和68.3%，分别比上月上升0.3和2.3个百分点，近期连续环比上升，建筑业有望继续保持平稳较快增长。

Zhao Qinghe said that due to the gradual cooling of the weather and other factors, the growth rate of construction production slowed down. In November, the business activity index was 59.3%, down 4.6 percentage points from last month, but located in a higher boom zone. In terms of market demand and expectations, the construction industry's new order index and business activity expectation index are 56.5% and 68.3%, respectively, up 0.3 and 2.3 percentage points from last month. In the near future, the construction industry is expected to continue to grow steadily and rapidly.

服务业景气度上升，11月份服务业商务活动指数为52.4%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，服务业延续增长势头。从行业情况看，受“双十一”促销活动等影响，邮政快递、电信、互联网软件等行业商务活动指数位于56.0%及以上，业务总量实现快速增长。此外，银行、证券、保险等金融行业均位于60.0%以上，升至高位景气区间。但道路运输、餐饮、房地产等行业商务活动指数低于临界点，业务总量有所回落。

The business activity index of service industry rose to 52.4% in November, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the service industry continued to grow momentum. As far as the industry is concerned, influenced by the "Double Eleventh" promotional activities, the index of business activities in postal express, telecommunications and Internet software industries is above 56.0%, and the total business volume has achieved rapid growth. In addition, the banking, securities, insurance and other financial industries are located at more than 60.0%, rising to the high boom zone. However, the business activity index of road transportation, catering, real estate and other industries is below the critical point, and the total business volume has fallen.

从市场预期看，服务业业务活动预期指数为59.6%，持续位于较高景气区间，企业对行业发展普遍看好。其中，批发零售、邮政快递、电信、互联网软件、银行、保险等行业位于60.0%以上高位景气区间。

From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities in service industry is 59.6%, which continues to be in a high boom zone. Enterprises generally look forward to the development of the industry. Among them, wholesale and retail, postal express, telecommunications, Internet software, banking, insurance and other industries are located in the high boom zone of more than 60.0%.

中国物流信息中心专家武威表示，非制造业PMI较上月下降0.5个百分点，但降幅有所收窄，仍保持在53.4%的较高水平，新订单指数与上月持平，连续两个月稳定在50.1%，非制造业市场经营保持适度较快增长，需求稳定，整体仍保持较快发展趋势。

Wuwei, an expert of China Logistics Information Center, said that the PMI of non-manufacturing industry decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared with last month, but the decline narrowed down, and remained at a high level of 53.4%. The new order index remained unchanged with last month, and stabilized at 50.1% for two consecutive months. The non-manufacturing market operation maintained moderately rapid growth, demand stability and overall rapid development trend.

下行压力犹在，应积极扩大平稳增长的需求基础

Downward pressure still exists, and the demand base for steady growth should be actively expanded.

In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the activity was weakened. Among them, the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 51.9% and 53.4%, respectively. The ring ratio has fallen.

国务院发展研究中心研究员张立群分析认为，11月份PMI指数继续下降，综合研判，当前经济下行压力仍比较明显。考虑中美贸易摩擦对未来出口的潜在影响，应积极扩大内需，促进经济平稳增长。

According to Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, the PMI index continued to decline in November, and the current downward pressure of the economy is still obvious. Considering the potential impact of Sino-US trade frictions on future exports, we should actively expand domestic demand and promote stable economic growth.

“11月份，制造业PMI落至荣枯线水平，显示下行压力仍不容忽视。但总的来看，供需保持在扩张区间，大中型企业生产经营形势相对平稳，稳中有进态势继续发展，新旧动能转换加快，制造业后期走势具有回稳基础。”中国物流信息中心专家文韬说。

"In November, the PMI of manufacturing industry fell to the level of prosperity and decline, indicating that downward pressure can not be ignored. But on the whole, supply and demand remain in the expansion zone, the production and operation situation of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable, steady and progressive trend continues to develop, the transformation of new and old momentum is accelerated, and the trend of manufacturing industry in the later period has a stable basis. Wen Tao, an expert of China Logistics Information Center, said.

文韬认为，目前制造业PMI的回落主要是受短期季节性因素影响，回落幅度明显收窄。从今年的走势来看，除最近3个月以及2月份之外，其他月份均保持在51%以上，处在近年来的相对合理水平。从PMI来看，供需扩张基本态势仍在延续，企业原材料成本压力有所缓解，大中型企业生产经营形势相对稳定，制造业后期走势仍具有平稳基础。

Wen Tao believes that the current decline of PMI in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by short-term seasonal factors, and the decline is obviously narrowed. From this year's trend, in addition to the last three months and February, the other months are maintained at more than 51%, at a relatively reasonable level in recent years. From the perspective of PMI, the basic situation of supply and demand expansion is still continuing, the pressure of raw material cost of enterprises has eased, the production and operation situation of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable, and the trend of manufacturing industry in the later period is still on a stable basis.

文韬建议，当前政策应着力做好“六稳”工作，尽快解决民营企业、中小企业发展中遇到的困难，激发资本市场活力，挖掘消费潜力。预计12月份，国内需求仍有较强支撑，外部需求受节日消费带动可能具有一定回升空间，企业生产保持稳中有增，原材料和产成品价格趋于稳定。

Wen Tao suggested that the current policy should focus on "six stability" work, solve the difficulties encountered in the development of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises as soon as possible, stimulate the vitality of the capital market and tap the consumption potential. It is expected that in December, domestic demand will still be strongly supported, external demand driven by festival consumption may have some room to rebound, enterprise production will remain stable and increase, and the prices of raw materials and finished products will tend to be stable.

从非制造业看，武威认为，非制造业市场经营保持适度较快增长，企业活动稳定，微观经济主体活力有所释放，企业预期向好。非制造业适度快速发展，有利于我国经济向高质量发展持续推进。

From the perspective of non-manufacturing industry, Wuwei believes that non-manufacturing market operation keeps moderate and rapid growth, enterprise activities are stable, the vitality of micro-economic entities has been released, and enterprises expect to be better. The moderate and rapid development of non-manufacturing industry is conducive to the sustainable development of China's economy to high quality.

“尽管非制造业市场需求没有继续下滑，但新订单指数仍保持在50.1%的较低水平，整体偏弱。反映市场需求不足的企业比重有所提升，连续两个月环比上升，11月份升至39.3%，创出年内新高。因此，要注重强化非制造业快速发展的动力基础和需求基础，以更好发挥其对稳增长的基础性作用。”武威说。

"Although the non-manufacturing market demand has not continued to decline, the new order index remains at a low level of 50.1%, which is generally weak. The proportion of enterprises reflecting inadequate market demand has increased, rising year by year for two consecutive months, to 39.3% in November, a new year high. Therefore, we should pay attention to strengthening the dynamic and demand basis for the rapid development of non-manufacturing industry, so as to better play its fundamental role in stable growth. Wuwei said.